Bourbon and Wine Prices Are Dropping — Why History Says This Was Always Coming

The latest reports from industry publications, such as Wine Searcher, confirms what many in the trade have been feeling for months: the bulk markets for both wine and spirits are overflowing with supply. Buyers are suddenly in the driver’s seat, able to secure premium inventory at prices not seen in years.

But this isn’t a story of sudden collapse — it’s a familiar cycle the whiskey business has seen before.

The COVID-Era Bourbon Boom and Its Aftermath

During the pandemic, bourbon demand surged to unprecedented levels. This “bourbon boom” sent barrel valuations soaring and set off a building spree across Kentucky. Distilleries expanded aggressively, new stills came online, and warehouses filled rapidly in anticipation of sustained demand.

As Oak Proof’s Todd Camhe points out, this kind of exponential growth was never going to be sustainable. The whiskey market has a well-documented boom-bust rhythm: surging demand triggers overproduction, followed by a correction when the market can’t absorb the volume. It happened in the 1970s, the 1990s, and now again in the 2020s.

A Predictable Correction — and a Buyer’s Market

When the post-COVID demand spike cooled — driven partly by the rise of Ready-to-Drink (RTD) cocktails — the result was inevitable: warehouses brimming with inventory, and aged bourbon selling at prices rolled back five to ten years.

Wine Searcher notes similar dynamics in bulk wine. Oversupply from global producers, coupled with cautious consumer spending, has pushed pricing to levels where high-volume buyers can secure entire vintages at a fraction of historical costs.

For both bourbon and wine, this is a textbook supply-demand reset.

Inside the Barrel: What Venture First’s Data Shows

While headlines focus on price drops, Venture First’s 2024 data — valuing over 400,000 barrels worth $500M — shows the deeper mechanics at play in the secondary barrel market:

• Barrels are a commodity-like asset: Prices fluctuate with supply and demand, but unlike gold or oil, there’s no public index. Valuations depend on completed transactions, not list prices.

• The post-pandemic surge in supply is the main driver of recent declines: Many barrels distilled during the boom years are now hitting key aging milestones (1-, 2-, and 4-year marks), prompting owners to sell.

• Multiple pressure points are pushing inventory to market: Speculative funds reaching their exit timelines, higher interest rates increasing holding costs, and distressed sellers needing cash flow.

Yet, it’s not all bearish. Venture First notes that demand for older, premium barrels has remained strong, and high-quality producers still command healthy premiums.

Consumer Preferences Remain Clear

Wine Searcher’s on-the-ground reporting from the International Bulk Wine & Spirits Show highlights that buyers aren’t taking varietal risks right now. The safe bets continue to dominate:

• Reds: Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, approachable red blends with a touch of oak.

• Whites: Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Grigio, and increasingly no-oak Chardonnay.

In bourbon, the lesson is similar: premium quality and recognized producers still move product, even in a market correction.

Why This Is an Opportunity, Not a Crisis

Oak Proof frames the current moment as a healthy market correction — the kind that sets the stage for long-term growth. Venture First’s data confirms that, while prices have softened, they’re still well above pre-2010s lows, and the market for high-quality, aged barrels remains resilient.

For buyers — whether you’re sourcing bulk wine, building a bourbon brand, or expanding inventory — this is a rare moment to secure top-tier product at favorable terms. For sellers, the path forward means strategic positioning: leaning into quality, managing inventory intelligently, and building brand equity for the next upswing.

The Brindiamo View

We’ve seen these cycles before. The winners are the ones who understand that the current surplus is not a sign of collapse, but a chance to build — to secure premium inventory, develop consumer-trusted brands, and be ready when the cycle inevitably turns.

Bulk wine has saved the industry before. Bourbon’s current adjustment may do the same — rewarding those with the foresight to buy while the market is still on sale.

Tap Into Brindiamo’s Aged Inventory While the Market Is in Your Favor

In a moment where buyers hold the advantage, access is everything. At Brindiamo, our inventory spans the spectrum — from wheat-forward bourbons with notes of oak and caramel, to rye-forward whiskeys bursting with spice, to rare 20-year Tennessee whiskey with unmatched smoothness.

With warehouses across Kentucky and deep relationships with top producers, we can match you with exactly what you need — whether it’s 4-year barrels ready to bottle, or older stock positioned for long-term appreciation.

Opportunities like this cycle don’t come often. The market has rolled back to prices we haven’t seen in a decade — but the best lots won’t last. Now is the time to secure premium inventory and position your brand for the next upswing. Learn More Here.